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Implied Odds – Winning Big With More Math

More math. If pot odds haven’t convinced you that math is your friend, implied odds surely will. Especially when playing no-limit forms of poker, a player wants to be very conscious of his implied odds at all times, seeing as they will dictate exactly how much value can be extracted from a given situation at all points in a hand.

Like pot odds, implied odds deal with the ratio of potential winnings to investment. However unlike pot odds, implied odds consider potential winnings on all future streets in a hand, instead of just one. Why is this important?

Take the example of a small pocket pair dealt to you preflop. Small pocket pairs are very likely to be dominated once flops are seen, and even more so on the turn, and still more so on the river. Therefore, when deciding how to play hands like small pocket pairs, one needs to consider potential winnings when a hand hits the board. If an opponent has very little money in his stack and you know he plays a tight range, it may not be profitable to call his preflop raises. On the other hand, if an opponent has a massive stack (lots of money to be taken), you would want to consider it.

Factors to Consider When Calculating Implied Odds:

You want to consider two basic factors when analyzing implied odds. First and foremost, how much can I possibly win off of my opponent? Meaning, how much do you think your opponent will be willing to put into the pot on all future streets of a hand? Take into consideration stack size, your estimation of the strength of his hand. Basically, how far you think your opponent will go, in monetary terms.

Next, consider the ability of your opponent to identify your strength, and realize his weakness. If you know your opponent will not lay down AKo regardless of the cards that fall on the board, for example, you can play lots of marginal hands on the basis of implied odds alone. On the other hand, if you think your opponent will be able to lay down his marginal holdings on scary boards, or whenever you show strength, you probably won’t be able to milk that much money out of him when you hit.

That being said, it helps to also consider the conspicuousness/inconspicuousness of your hand once you make it. For example, a set of 3′s on a 3-6-T board will be very well disguised- your opponent probably won’t figure you for a set right away, and will presume you are simply continuation betting to try and move him off of a hand. On an A-K-3 board, the situation may be a bit different. Although your opponent might not put you on a set of 3′s exactly (if you showed preflop strength it is more likely he will assess you as holding an A or K hand), he will be able to see your strength. You must evaluate the strength of his hand against yours in these scenarios, and size your bets accordingly in order to maximize your implied odds.

An Example Calculation:

You and John are playing a game of heads-up $600NL poker. Your starting stack is $600, while John’s is $250. You hold 3-3 preflop, and are first to act in the small blind. You complete the blind. John raises to $18, 3 times the big blind. Is it worth it for you to call, to try to hit your set of 3′s?

Outs- 2 (two remaining 3′s)
Cards unseen-  52 minus 2 (cards seen dealt to you) equals 50.
Chance of making your hand on the flop: 2/50, or 25:1 against.
Pot Odds: $24:$12, or 2:1.

These are basic pot odds. Based on these alone, you surely should never call. But, you know (magically) that if you hit your set on the flop, your opponent will bet and call off his entire stack, since he holds AA (again, you know this magically). So,

Chance of making your hand: 2/50 = 0.04, or roughly 25:1 against.
Implied Odds: $268: $12, or 22.3333:1. (After you call $12 on the flop, the pot is $36. Add that to your opponent’s remaining stack, or ($250-$28), and you get $268 for the total possible amount you could win).

As we can see, the implied odds still do not make up for the slim chance that we make our hand. Our opponent has effectively cut us off from profitably drawing to our set. This is a good example of why may top players advocate not drawing to sets from small pocket pairs against short-stacked players: implied odds! The fact is that without this knowledge, most players would unprofitably call with their 3′s preflop, but you won’t- because you like making money, right?

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