Texas holdem strategy - Pot odds

Long-term profits in holdem come from making bets with a positive expectation. You only have a positive expectation when your payoff is higher than your risk. Casinos make money from negative expectation games like roulette. The single number bet in roulette pays off at 35 to 1, but the odds of winning the bet are 37 to 1. The difference between the 37 and the 35 is the casino’s profit margin.

You need a basic understanding of how to calculate pot odds while playing in order to determine when to play. You should only play a hand when you have a positive expectation, otherwise you should fold. Basically you compare the number of chips in the pot with your chances of winning the pot when you decide whether or not to play a hand.

Suppose there is $150 in a pot, and you’re on the flop with 4 to a flush. An easy way to approximate the odds of hitting the flush is to take the number of cards that will make your hand and multiply that by the number of cards that are still going to be dealt, and multiply that by 2. There are 13 cards in a suit and you have 4 of them. So there are 9 cards left. 9 times 2 more cards times 2% equals 36%, or about 1 in 3. You will win an average of once every three times and lose the other two times. So the pot needs to offer you at least 2 to 1 for you to call a bet. If someone bets $50, you stand to win $200 on a $50 bet, which gives you appropriate pot odds to call.

This basic concept is essential to holdem success. Other concepts to start thinking about are the odds of your opponent folding if you raise. This will change the pot odds. A rule of thumb is that the fewer opponents, the more likely you’ll be able to take down an uncontested pot. Another rule of thumb is that if you have a drawing hand, a big pot, and a small bet to call, then you should call. If the pot's small, and the bet’s big, then you should fold.